The global semiconductor market achieved a valuation of $149.9 billion in the second quarter of 2024, according to data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS).
This marks a 6.5% increase from the first quarter of 2024 and an 18.3% rise compared to the same period the previous year. Notably, WSTS adjusted its first-quarter 2024 figures upward by $3 billion, revising the year-over-year growth for that quarter to 17.8%, up from the initially reported 15.3%.
Among the top semiconductor companies, most reported robust revenue growth in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter. Out of the top fifteen companies, only MediaTek and STMicroelectronics experienced revenue declines. The memory segment, in particular, saw the most significant gains, with SK Hynix and Kioxia each reporting increases of over 30%, Samsung Semiconductor up 23%, and Micron Technology rising by 17%. The overall weighted average growth for the top fifteen companies was 8% quarter-over-quarter, with memory companies leading at 22% and non-memory companies at 3%.
Nvidia continued to dominate as the largest semiconductor company, projecting $28 billion in revenue for the second quarter of 2024 based on its guidance. Samsung followed as the second-largest, with $20.7 billion. Although Broadcom had not yet reported its second-quarter results, estimates placed its revenue at $13.0 billion, surpassing Intel, which came in at $12.8 billion. This shift moved Intel to the fourth position, a significant change after many years of ranking first or second.
Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2024, revenue forecasts vary widely among companies. AMD anticipates a 15% increase in revenue, driven by strong demand in data centre and client computing sectors. Micron expects continued momentum in the memory market, forecasting a 12% growth as supply remains constrained relative to demand. While Samsung Semiconductor and SK Hynix did not provide specific revenue guidance, both foresee sustained strong demand, particularly from server AI applications.
Conversely, some companies predict modest growth for the third quarter, with Intel, MediaTek, and STMicroelectronics each projecting a 1% revenue increase. Intel attributed its cautious outlook to excess inventory. Other companies offering guidance fall within a 4% to 8% growth range. STMicroelectronics and NXP Semiconductors are optimistic about improvements in the automotive sector, though they acknowledge ongoing inventory challenges in the industrial sector. Texas Instruments expects strength in personal electronics to drive its growth. The weighted average revenue growth for the nine non-memory companies that provided guidance is estimated at 5%.
The substantial growth in the semiconductor market during the first half of 2024 – up 18% from the first half of 2023 – is expected to fuel strong performance for the entire year. Forecasts for 2024 growth range from 14.4% (Cowan LRA Model) to 20.7% (Statista Market Insights). Semiconductor Intelligence (SC-IQ) projects a 17.0% increase for the year, aligning closely with Gartner’s forecast of 17.4% and WSTS’s estimate of 16.0%.
Projections for 2025 suggest a deceleration in growth, but still expect solid gains, with estimates ranging from 11.0% (Semiconductor Intelligence) to 15.6% (Statista). The slowdown in growth from 2024 to 2025 is forecasted to range from a 3.5 percentage point decrease (WSTS, from 16% to 12.5%) to a 6-percentage point decline (Semiconductor Intelligence, from 17% to 11%). Initial forecasts for 2026 indicate growth in the mid-single digits, as the momentum from AI and a recovering memory market is expected to taper off. Meanwhile, major markets such as smartphones, PCs, and automotive are likely to experience flat to modest growth in the coming years. Absent any significant new growth drivers or economic downturns, the semiconductor market is projected to maintain mid-single-digit growth through the end of the decade.
