After expressing strong confidence for November sales sentiment in all component categories, survey participants projected equally strong pessimism for the December outlook.
Fortunately, the glum expectations for December sales performance are overshadowed by the bright optimism for Q1 2025 sales sentiment.
“Looking over the past year the ECST survey results show the second half was a very challenging sales environment for electronic components channel participants,” noted ECIA Chief Analyst Dale Ford. “But there are strong expectations for a much brighter tomorrow starting in Q1 2025.”
The decline in the Electro-Mechanical/Connector segment’s December outlook still left it slightly ahead of October’s actual results. However, the drop in the sales sentiment outlook for December across all other categories fell to its lowest level since the December 2023 to February 2024 period – a challenging way to close the year.
Encouraging news emerged from the Q4 ECST survey and the Q1 2025 outlook. The Q1 forecast indicated a significant improvement, with expectations for sales growth rising from 15% to 27% between Q4 and Q1, while expectations for declining sales dropped from 8% to 15%. The overall Q1 projection revealed that 46% of participants anticipated sales growth, only 7% expected a decline, and 47% held neutral expectations. Among those expecting declining sales, the forecast showed a modest decrease of -1% to -3%. In contrast, 15% of respondents projected growth of +3% to +5%, and 4% anticipated growth exceeding +5%.
Reflecting on the past year, the ECST survey results underscored that the second half presented significant challenges for electronic components channel participants. However, there is strong optimism for a more favourable outlook beginning in Q1 2025.
The ECST survey provides highly valuable and detailed visibility on industry expectations in the near-term through the monthly and quarterly surveys. This ‘immediate’ perspective is helpful to participants up and down the electronics components supply chain. In the long-term, ECIA shares in the optimism for the future as the continued introduction and market adoption of exciting innovative technologies should motivate both corporate and consumer demand for next-generation products over the long term.
