In aerospace and defence procurement, obsolescence has always been a planning challenge as equipment engineered to last decades meets components with much shorter lifecycles. When military activity escalates, it becomes more urgent and consequential. Military actions in Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere are increasing demand while supply is shrinking. For many legacy components designed into military systems, there isn’t a second source waiting in the wings.
Procurement teams aren’t just managing lifecycle risk anymore. They’re competing against one another for the same finite pool of obsolete and end-of-life (EOL) semiconductors: processors, FPGAs, microcontrollers, memory chips, analog ICs, and other critical components. There is a limited number of these parts. Once they’re gone, they’re gone, even in the broker market. We’re seeing this play out in real time across missile programs, radar systems, aircraft electronics, and surveillance platforms. For instance, demand has tripled over the past year at Flip for NXP processors used in the U.S. military’s air and missile defence program. We’re also gaining traction with large defence contractors in Europe despite a natural preference for regional suppliers.
The stakes are high. Those who succeed secure the inventory needed to keep production and repairs on track, while those who fall behind face multiyear redesign cycles at a time when governments need systems delivered immediately, not months from now.
A new urgency driven by global defence demand
Military conflicts dramatically increase demand for defence platforms. Offensive and defensive systems alike are being deployed at scale, from reconnaissance and payload-laden drones to anti-ballistic missile technologies designed to intercept incoming threats at varying altitudes and distances. These are billion-dollar programs, and they depend on electronic components whose performance specs and form factors are often generations old.
Missiles are also a one-and-done asset. Once deployed, they must be replaced. That puts sustained pressure on production, even for programs that were originally expected to taper. Many governments are seeing stockpiles deplete faster than anticipated, and they are requesting accelerated production timelines as a result. Defence contractors are being asked to ramp up output. That’s putting intense pressure on procurement teams to locate legacy components in quantities sufficient to meet the demand.
The reality of long-lifecycle designs
For expensive, technologically sophisticated equipment in the mil/aero sector, it’s not unusual for five to seven years to pass between concept and manufacturing. By the time a program ramps to full-scale production, many of the components designed into the platform are already approaching EOL or have crossed the divide into obsolete status – no one has them, and no one’s producing them anymore, either.
Processors are a prime example. While hardware redesign may seem relatively straightforward, the reality is far more complex. Rewriting code and qualifying, validating and testing software may take years. Transitioning to a new architecture is not trivial, and it’s rarely fast. That’s why many programs continue using legacy processors long after commercial availability ends.
When last-time buys fall short
Most mil/aero companies understand the importance of last-time buys, but that doesn’t make forecasting long-term demand any easier. Some organisations simply cannot afford to make large last-time buys when obsolescence notices are issued. Others make educated guesses, only to find that demand far exceeds projections. Occasionally, mothballed programs are resurrected. We’ve even worked with customers who have gone through multiple ‘last-time’ buys for the same component.
Meanwhile, semiconductor manufacturers typically offer only a short window – sometimes just six months – to place final orders. After that, production stops. Any inventory that remains becomes the total available supply. At that point, procurement shifts to authorised distributors with inventory stockpiles or the secondary market, where buyers take their chances on quality, performance and authenticity.
A finite supply, growing competition and the high cost of waiting
Aerospace and defence programs often rely on identical components. Tier 1 contractors such as Raytheon, Lockheed, and Boeing, along with Tier 2 subsystem suppliers and international defence companies, may all be sourcing the same parts from the same diminishing inventory pools. Procurement decisions are time-sensitive in the extreme. We’re seeing customers compete head-to-head for available stock. Some are securing multi-year supplies for guaranteed program continuity. Others wait, only to discover that all remaining inventory has been committed elsewhere.
Assuming inventory will remain available is risky. When manufacturers discontinue a component, the clock starts ticking. Any delay in securing components can impact project schedules, program readiness, contractual commitments and delivery timelines. Once all those parts are allocated, the only remaining option is an expensive, time-consuming redesign. The difference between securing supply and starting over may come down to timing.
Planning for the inevitable
Semiconductor companies are in a perpetual race for market dominance, and the time between cutting-edge and obsolete is shrinking. For procurement professionals, the takeaway is clear: availability isn’t guaranteed.
At Flip, our model is built around anticipating this gap. As an authorised distributor, we invest in end-of-life and obsolete semiconductor inventory directly from manufacturers, often acquiring remaining global stock and, in some cases, purchasing die banks to extend supply. This allows us to support mil/aero customers whose product lifecycles extend far beyond typical semiconductor production timelines, including legacy processors that remain in demand long after official obsolescence.
Right now, we’re stressing urgency as available inventory of some mission-critical components dwindles. A proactive and comprehensive approach enables us to rapidly address critical component demands with 100% traceable, authorised components to maintain production continuity. As they say, the best offense is a good defence, no matter the geopolitical situation.
About the author:
Kyle Collins, Senior Sales Representative, Flip Electronics
