Quantum computing has entered its show-me phase. Organisations still believe the technology will matter, but they are no longer willing to fund that belief on faith. According to Part 2 of the 2026 Quantum Readiness Report from QuEra Computing, this shift is changing how budgets are set, how technology is procured, and which providers make the shortlist.
The clearest signal of this shift is in spending. Nearly half (46%) of organisations expect their quantum budgets to remain flat in 2026, while 44% anticipate increases and 10% expect decreases. The pattern points to a market in consolidation, where investment continues but is increasingly tied to demonstrated outcomes rather than expectations.
“Buyers want proof, not glossy brochures,” said Yuval Boger, Chief Commercial Officer at QuEra Computing. “Organisations are moving from early experimentation to disciplined investment decisions, where budgets are scrutinised, use cases must be justified, and procurement plays a central role.”
From FOMO to necessity
The survey reveals a decisive shift away from the “fear of missing out” that characterised earlier investment cycles. Only 9% of respondents cite successful pilot results as the primary driver of increased spending, reinforcing that quantum computing remains largely pre-commercial.
The drivers of investment now vary by organisational maturity. Early-stage organisations still cite competitive pressure and FOMO as their leading motivator. Advanced organisations point to the “classical wall,” the point at which conventional computing can no longer handle their most demanding workloads. The market is moving from hype-driven spending to problem-driven spending.
The C-suite reality check
The data also highlights a growing divide between executive leadership and technical teams. Senior decision-makers are significantly less optimistic about increasing quantum budgets than junior researchers and practitioners, reflecting a more cautious approach among those responsible for capital allocation.
This ‘C-suite reality check’ suggests that enthusiasm alone is no longer sufficient to unlock funding. Business cases must demonstrate measurable value and clearer paths to return on investment.
“With nearly 100 quantum companies competing today, executives are asking two questions before they commit,” Boger added. “Who has the funding to be here for the long haul, and who has clear scientific proof that their approach works and a credible path to larger machines that deliver real enterprise value?”
Government funding remains the market’s foundation
Public sector investment continues to play a defining role in the quantum ecosystem. Government mandates and grant availability are cited as the primary driver of budget increases by 28% of respondents, more than any other factor.
At the same time, government and defence organisations are expected to lead commercialisation over the next three years, identified by 24% of respondents as the most likely segment to drive adoption.
Quantum computing is still pre-commercial, and public funding is underwriting the risk that private capital is not yet willing to take on alone.
Sovereignty reshapes a fragmenting global market
The report identifies sovereignty as one of the most consequential shifts in how quantum technology is acquired. 62% of organisations now actively factor sovereignty into procurement decisions, and only 5% say sovereignty is not a factor at all. The fully globalised sourcing model that defined the early years of the industry is giving way to a more stratified one.
Regional divergence is sharp. Organisations in the United States tend to favour performance-led, global sourcing strategies, while those in the European Union place greater emphasis on sovereignty, supply chain resilience, and regional capability building. This is the strongest regional pattern in the dataset, and it suggests that a single global go-to-market strategy will increasingly underperform region-specific approaches.
Where commercial traction will emerge
Looking ahead, the survey identifies government and defence as the most likely drivers of near-term quantum commercialisation (24%), followed by large enterprises (20%) and sectors such as pharmaceuticals and life sciences (11%).
Financial services rank last at 5%, well below what the early predictions about portfolio optimisation and arbitrage would have suggested. The data suggests this sector is waiting for full fault tolerance before re-engaging at scale.
This article originally appeared in the July/August issue of Procurement Pro
